NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-19.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef92d4e328b525f56568528e575a610a1dc1556481e6a626d9fa4fd9d98474d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Thunder, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Thunder | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 54c | 13,889$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,388.88 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Kings | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Kings | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Thunder | 45c | 999$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.55 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 46c | 928.75$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder | 45c | 909.09$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.09 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Kings | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 45c | 665.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 52c | 654.83$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.98 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 55c | 567$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Thunder | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Kings | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Thunder | 45c | 187$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…4f64backed Thunder | 45c | 185.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 46c | 168$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Kings | 55c | 156.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Kings | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…c535backed Kings | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…d021backed Kings | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Kings | 55c | 69.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Thunder | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Kings | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Thunder | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…8248backed Kings | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Thunder | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Thunder | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…4240backed Kings | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. ThunderThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.