NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb85f1bb6dab4a2ae187a0a53b90dddb9da79479f8a6eebd0875b250b81f13e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,001$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 313 | 47%147 W · 166 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Under | 56c | 894.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.8 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 45c | 778$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 293$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 197.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 131.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Under | 52c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Under | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…821fbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. ThunderThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.