NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x453b57cd6573acc5aff3548dd448892df46a15839df27160964a0937df334238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Thunder, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Thunder | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,800 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 46c | 19,998$9,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,798.82 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Kings | 52c | 9,999$5,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,828.02 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings | 46c | 5,400$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Thunder | 54c | 5,108$2,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.32 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 49c | 3,705$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 49c | 3,561$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 54c | 1,689$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.06 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 54c | 1,219$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 46c | 893.76$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.74 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Kings | 46c | 613$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.99 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Kings | 47c | 558.62$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.06 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Thunder | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Kings | 45c | 399.92$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.96 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Thunder | 55c | 183.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Kings | 46c | 151$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Kings | 46c | 114$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Kings | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Thunder | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 489 | 48.5%237 W · 252 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Thunder | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Thunder | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…7129backed Kings | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Thunder | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Kings | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Thunder | 54c | 74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Kings | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Thunder | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Thunder | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked Thunder | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Kings | 47c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…c535backed Thunder | 57c | 66.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Thunder | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Kings | 45c | 55.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Thunder | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Thunder | 55c | 54.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…a811backed Thunder | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 55c | 52.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Thunder | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Thunder | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Thunder | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Thunder | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Thunder | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Thunder | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Thunder | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Kings | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 46c | 31.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Thunder | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Thunder | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Kings | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Kings | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Thunder | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Kings | 58c | 25.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Thunder | 47c | 24.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…ae83backed Thunder | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…c4dfbacked Thunder | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…356bbacked Thunder | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…5829backed Thunder | 55c | 19.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. ThunderThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Kings won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.