TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,370 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa557…5e8abacked Over1c1,000$10 inWon+$99011914.3%17 W · 102 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+289.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Over1c1,000$10 inWon+$9901085.6%6 W · 102 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+339.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over34c473.48$163 inWon+$310.768,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under66c310$205 inLost-$204.612352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Under65c165$107 inLost-$107.252744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under63c130.82$82 inLost-$82.4282741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked Under63c79.36$50 inLost-$49.9918547.6%88 W · 97 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Under64c78.46$50 inLost-$5012049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Under77c60$46 inLost-$46.15,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x389d…995fbacked Under63c59.98$38 inLost-$37.9913144.3%58 W · 73 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed Under63c52.4$33 inLost-$33.0613046.9%61 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over35c50$17 inWon+$32.61,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under74c39$29 inLost-$28.866,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under64c19$12 inLost-$12.161,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under77c18$14 inLost-$13.864,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.