MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74622669dfb45a3c189535251a3dd1612d6e5b74095d0b98cc34a6b33dd61593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 65c | 33,584$21,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,694.75 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 57c | 8,606$4,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700.69 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 35c | 7,901$2,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,135.84 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 27c | 4,897$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,574.81 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 4,747$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,929.85 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Under | 44c | 4,510$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 37c | 4,323$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,727.07 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Over | 56c | 4,200$2,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.99 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 3,626$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.92 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 3,387$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.96 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 1,835$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.74 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 46c | 1,799$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.47 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Under | 46c | 1,568$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.75 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Under | 63c | 1,550$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 53c | 1,439$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.17 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 54c | 1,285$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.19 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 44c | 1,210$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.4 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Over | 52c | 1,188$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.66 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 55c | 1,124$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.84 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 44c | 1,086$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ca…5d8dbacked Over | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 48c | 983.17$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.04 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 27c | 852$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.14 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 43c | 773$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.61 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Under | 48c | 737.39$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.27 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 35c | 686$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.9 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 56c | 625$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 462.97$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.3 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Under | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 44c | 361.07$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.87 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…2120backed Over | 53c | 336.84$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.31 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 35c | 327.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 44c | 308.63$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Under | 47c | 308.51$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 56c | 303.03$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 46c | 253.51$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 51c | 232.39$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.87 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 20c | 220$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 220$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 56c | 201$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Under | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…b63ebacked Over | 45c | 111.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 46c | 102.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 46c | 101.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 56c | 95.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 80c | 84.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 34c | 77.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 65c | 72.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 46c | 61.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Over | 40c | 55.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Under | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 36c | 52.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 43c | 51.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 37c | 44.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Over | 36c | 35.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 231 | 56.7%131 W · 100 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Under | 56c | 31.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 39c | 29.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Over | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 45c | 24.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 52c | 21.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.