TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$285,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Houston Astros47c33,559$15,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,780.4977053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Seattle Mariners53c30,405$16,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,290.4186548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners51c20,675$10,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,082.033,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros48c18,595$8,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,983.864,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Houston Astros47c15,645$7,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,315.261,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners58c12,028$6,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,074.2711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Houston Astros47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7007550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Houston Astros35c9,722$3,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,370.2416947.9%81 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners75c5,492$4,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.5810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Seattle Mariners51c5,080$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.214252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Houston Astros23c5,080$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.211,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Houston Astros47c4,922$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.871,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros2c4,800$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.014,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros12c4,417$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.961,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros38c3,644$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.112,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Seattle Mariners54c3,200$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.942268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+34.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe361…5ff5backed Houston Astros47c3,041$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.041450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Seattle Mariners53c3,025$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.751833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Seattle Mariners53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4106050%30 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Seattle Mariners53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4106645.5%30 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Seattle Mariners53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4106349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros2c2,892$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.156,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Seattle Mariners54c2,827$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.577951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Seattle Mariners53c2,800$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3166650%33 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Houston Astros1c2,600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.88762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd181…5136backed Seattle Mariners67c2,390$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.611060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros36c2,381$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.742,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Seattle Mariners55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90024946.2%115 W · 134 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros29c1,964$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.969,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Houston Astros42c1,856$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.3637348.3%180 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Houston Astros18c1,771$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.744252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Seattle Mariners51c1,656$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.3855052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Seattle Mariners54c1,570$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.2873748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Seattle Mariners52c1,535$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.821767.7%147 W · 70 L+36.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Houston Astros28c1,420$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.5151756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros47c1,380$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.581,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Houston Astros10c1,367$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.71,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2a…1fcabacked Seattle Mariners53c1,328$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.053743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Houston Astros46c1,318$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.2866050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Seattle Mariners50c1,315$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.2912457.3%71 W · 53 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Houston Astros23c1,300$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29910930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e9…836abacked Houston Astros20c1,300$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26521323.5%50 W · 163 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Houston Astros2c1,260$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.21,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Seattle Mariners52c1,170$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.5712441.1%51 W · 73 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Houston Astros21c1,124$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3325240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…f61ebacked Houston Astros47c1,110$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.881643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked Houston Astros6c1,094$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.922642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed Houston Astros47c1,037$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.88557.6%49 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Houston Astros1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107542.7%32 W · 43 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+63.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8370…0d16backed Houston Astros6c986.81$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.22728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6a…65e1backed Seattle Mariners54c914.99$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Seattle Mariners53c900$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4235653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc314…fbdcbacked Seattle Mariners78c893$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1932853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Seattle Mariners51c889.5$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.8527351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b39…57e8backed Houston Astros36c825$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2972733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners54c750$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3452,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Seattle Mariners54c734$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.6446749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb7f…824bbacked Seattle Mariners55c714.45$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.56764.2%43 W · 24 L+10.6wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Houston Astros6c708.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5278649.1%386 W · 400 L+3.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f32…f204backed Seattle Mariners54c703$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.38425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Seattle Mariners51c686.27$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.2720552.7%108 W · 97 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5a2…b5b7backed Houston Astros47c682.87$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Seattle Mariners53c660.38$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.3821856%122 W · 96 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners75c652$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1635,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc47…15d4backed Seattle Mariners54c640$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Seattle Mariners79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9139739.5%157 W · 240 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b98…d5d8backed Houston Astros46c609.88$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce53…834bbacked Seattle Mariners51c604.96$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.339063.3%57 W · 33 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Houston Astros48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28885952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Seattle Mariners54c576.44$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.21,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed Houston Astros48c520$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.617446%80 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb7…95b2backed Seattle Mariners54c509.98$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eec…df90backed Seattle Mariners75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251471.4%10 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Houston Astros8c499.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4094034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Houston Astros50c491$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.53745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7585…ea79backed Houston Astros49c488$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.154542.2%19 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Houston Astros46c479.99$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.291,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Seattle Mariners51c425$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.2514047.1%66 W · 74 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Houston Astros48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020350.2%102 W · 101 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Houston Astros48c412.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020350.2%102 W · 101 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Seattle Mariners78c403.69$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.811,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Houston Astros46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18439850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Seattle Mariners53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18821057.6%121 W · 89 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Houston Astros42c400$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1686758.2%39 W · 28 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Mariners80c394.11$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.912,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f7…3c0cbacked Seattle Mariners78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6213459.7%80 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Seattle Mariners53c379$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1331949.5%158 W · 161 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Seattle Mariners61c374.11$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.271,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Houston Astros48c364.58$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17573243.4%318 W · 414 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Seattle Mariners55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6461351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d06…11fbbacked Seattle Mariners53c362$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabd5…3c16backed Seattle Mariners54c350$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Houston Astros18c345.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1460941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e0…f949backed Houston Astros46c325.26$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners51c321.46$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.966,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee38…6851backed Seattle Mariners76c314.01$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ebb…593dbacked Houston Astros46c304.94$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6341…227bbacked Houston Astros46c304.94$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Seattle Mariners58c299.33$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2320647.1%97 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Houston Astros46c291.73$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.681,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.