TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,270 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3234…8b1abacked Over52c1,913$1,000 inLost-$1,0007644.7%34 W · 42 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under47c1,258$592 inWon+$666.3610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under52c536.58$279 inWon+$257.459,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under38c406.02$154 inWon+$252.2282741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x460d…9d5fbacked Over31c366.33$113 inLost-$112.721136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Under33c310$102 inWon+$207.72744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under50c273.88$136 inWon+$137.938,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over46c189.25$87 inLost-$86.6711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over67c162.14$109 inLost-$108.8384049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over66c117$78 inLost-$77.721,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked Under32c102.39$33 inWon+$69.6118547.6%88 W · 97 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under20c73.54$15 inWon+$58.7867742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over43c72.51$31 inLost-$31.0633032.7%108 W · 222 L-22.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over60c57.82$35 inLost-$34.631,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Under33c52$17 inWon+$34.8412049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over65c45.23$29 inLost-$29.41,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under38c41.46$16 inWon+$25.538,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over69c38$26 inLost-$26.2212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over62c38$24 inLost-$23.561,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Under50c28.37$14 inWon+$14.2282551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1c…390dbacked Over71c27.13$19 inLost-$19.2610846.3%50 W · 58 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Under48c25.88$12 inWon+$13.453261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3e6…ef53backed Under60c21.15$13 inWon+$8.561752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93dd…2f33backed Over55c20$11 inLost-$114447.7%21 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over68c19.23$13 inLost-$13.011,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.