MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ab8bfdceffb795c59268d54f09ba50a2abd35b0efda7d27723e6851d82b2de0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 49c | 9,747$4,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,775.02 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 5,954$3,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,918.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 51c | 1,641$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 51c | 1,021$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.17 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 1,001$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 44c | 879.3$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.16 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 40c | 868.12$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.25 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 51c | 696.81$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.37 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Under | 40c | 692.5$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 627.69$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…44c6backed Over | 54c | 214.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 52c | 154$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 146.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 60c | 145$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 39c | 129.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Over | 41c | 122.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 39c | 116.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 40c | 113.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 40c | 90.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Over | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Under | 43c | 65.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Over | 56c | 54.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 36c | 47.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 42c | 45.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 62c | 41.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 55c | 39.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 33.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 40c | 33.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 62c | 32.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 54c | 30.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 44c | 29.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.