TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,077
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,077 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3234…8b1abacked No51c2,440$1,234 inLost-$1,2347644.7%34 W · 42 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes49c2,000$990 inWon+$1,0102,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes49c200$98 inWon+$1029,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes49c179$88 inWon+$91.291,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Yes51c119.98$61 inWon+$58.791,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes50c111.65$56 inWon+$55.948,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed No48c70.25$34 inLost-$33.722,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77e1…0d6bbacked No49c50.51$25 inLost-$24.751145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aff…9903backed No49c30.37$15 inLost-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…0d16backed No49c30.19$15 inLost-$14.79728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes62c30$18 inWon+$11.577752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No49c27.77$14 inLost-$13.7448653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Yes48c24$12 inWon+$12.486,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x590a…c459backed No50c23.76$12 inLost-$11.8811451.8%59 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No51c20$10 inLost-$10.21,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes69c18$12 inWon+$5.581,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.