MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x675981139ed97a613af24ce816a15e116efc097ce9d47fddf83b32b0f310c7c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 9,032$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,972.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 68c | 1,971$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Houston Astros | 65c | 1,620$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.95 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 66c | 1,352$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.62 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Houston Astros | 66c | 1,136$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 808$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.2 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Houston Astros | 66c | 647.97$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.66 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 67c | 406.45$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.58 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 66c | 349.98$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Houston Astros | 66c | 295$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 118.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Houston Astros | 69c | 86.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 78.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Houston Astros | 71c | 70.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Houston Astros | 71c | 70.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 66.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Houston Astros | 74c | 66.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Houston Astros | 73c | 51.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Seattle Mariners | 27c | 51.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cbf2backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 46.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…ed98backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Houston Astros | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Houston Astros | 66c | 25.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 25.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.