MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14aa386191163bf7e67c421fcd0ff3bf4863efb124288c665be47ff26d8b3d66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 40c | 679.44$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.14 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 13c | 677.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.51 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 380$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 379.41$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 259.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 68c | 253.91$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Houston Astros | 43c | 233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 232.68$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 154.54$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 8c | 151.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…49babacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 144.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +931.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Mariners | 14c | 130$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 122$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Houston Astros | 42c | 120.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Houston Astros | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Houston Astros | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 108.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 95.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Houston Astros | 42c | 95.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Houston Astros | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 56.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 55.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 52.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 46.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…a6f6backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ca…5d8dbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Houston Astros | 41c | 28.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 63c | 25.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Houston Astros | 43c | 25.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Houston Astros | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d8…b9d4backed Houston Astros | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Houston Astros | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.