Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fa0f91ffbe4881ec1ea0272a3e70edf0e77131e97d171ae5839d4f05de9e9c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,566$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 818.91$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 180.57$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 157$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 133.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 127.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 126.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 124.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 67c | 123.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 113.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 73c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 101.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 100.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 96.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 67c | 89.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 88.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 78.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 77.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 30c | 76.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 68.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 42c | 57.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 57.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 57.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 57.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 57.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 41.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 33c | 41.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 39c | 41.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 40c | 39.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 38.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 65c | 37.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 37.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 36.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 35.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 32.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 31.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 30.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 30.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 40c | 30.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 27.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 61c | 25.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 62c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 66c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 63c | 17.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.