Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on November 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fa83ca1c52d1a63861d34c3bcb5f790356df6221a3e53063f66d89a57277497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 13c | 570.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 506.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5a…d8e2backed Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…df7dbacked Yes | 11c | 332.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 13c | 295.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Yes | 29c | 295$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 20c | 283.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 18c | 238.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 18c | 235.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 13c | 230.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 13c | 199.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…5286backed Yes | 11c | 169.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 18c | 161.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 11c | 125.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 120.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…9d8ebacked Yes | 21c | 102.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…ba00backed Yes | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 28c | 71.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 60.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on November 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or below on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or higher on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on November 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on November 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.