Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on November 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5bfbe70100b8105729965a07d7ecd578a8552550164ab2ef96e4ce7911eb8ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd924…7523backed Yes | 41c | 5,563$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,303.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…bcfdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,120$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 562.23$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.89 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 10c | 465.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.05 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 347.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5a…d8e2backed Yes | 11c | 344.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 30c | 343.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.16 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 63c | 306.37$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 70c | 301.84$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 18c | 210.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.14 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…18edbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.01 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 15c | 199.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.94 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 17c | 188.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185e…7af6backed Yes | 24c | 170$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +232.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 23c | 158.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 149.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 39c | 138.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 124.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…2b3ebacked Yes | 42c | 114.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…9d52backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 73c | 82.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 78.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 24c | 77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 37c | 73.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 28c | 66.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 78c | 64.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 63.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 75c | 56.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…91d3backed Yes | 79c | 50.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 23c | 50.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…9255backed Yes | 41c | 36.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…9c6fbacked No | 80c | 31.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…27c8backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…82debacked No | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4187backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fe…6a5ebacked No | 80c | 15.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on November 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or below on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or higher on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61-62°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63-64°F on November 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on November 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.