Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fcdd8aca0a81a0326681582bc3b44d42a3d47fc034ea81e25ba928fb3d2e8e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 36c | 399.61$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.63 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 298$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 62c | 275.22$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.22 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 53c | 230.56$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 141.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 136.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 123.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 122.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 114.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 111.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 100.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 98.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 95.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 95.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 65c | 86.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 17c | 69.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 59c | 67.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 63.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 63c | 61.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 53.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 53.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 50.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 49.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 38c | 49.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 47.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 63c | 46.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 49c | 46.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 63c | 46.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 44.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 34c | 38.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 36.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 36.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 35.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 35.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 36c | 34.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 35c | 34.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 32.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…cdd9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 52c | 23.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 22.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 17.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…8baebacked Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 72c | 13.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.