Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fd3d8b50dadcde65955d26e07e54be98f658035d8a96c25d86cfc8b92e39dfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 43c | 255.88$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 207$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 203.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 36c | 184.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 174.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 58c | 159.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 32c | 148.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 143.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 29c | 122.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 120.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 110.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 109.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 45c | 100.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 29c | 98.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 22c | 96.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 50c | 92.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 82.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 69c | 81.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 75.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 73.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 68.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 49c | 66.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 47c | 66.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 49c | 65.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 51c | 63.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 58.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 41c | 57.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 52.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 39c | 49.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 49.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 43.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 45c | 43.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 71c | 40.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 42c | 40.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 39c | 36.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 59c | 33.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 32.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 56c | 31.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 30.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 47c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 38c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 37c | 29.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 44c | 29.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 48c | 29.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 39c | 29.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 57c | 26.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 23.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 59c | 22.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b38…52c8backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 55c | 18.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 58c | 17.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 80c | 16.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 16.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.