TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,660
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,660 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01a6…59b0backed No74c347.8$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.651,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes41c326.56$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1940226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes28c322$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.321,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c302.06$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.553,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes60c291.02$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.055044%22 W · 28 L-12.1wins-0.24per pick68cpaid-32.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes77c260.51$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6832147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes28c238.63$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.139,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No26c226.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7571823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c207$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No17c197.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.794,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c193.49$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd16f…b6ddbacked Yes72c193.29$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.641020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-71.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes73c183.05$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6945148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes28c175.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed No61c164.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8331124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No70c151.82$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No36c139.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.261,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No10c130.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No60c117.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3225049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No48c116.83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.223,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes27c112.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2817443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes54c85.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.278744.8%39 W · 48 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes41c85.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2844536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes30c81.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4925946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No75c80.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.485,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No27c78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.332,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No66c76.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.451,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes36c76.03$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8840237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No38c75.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.624647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes30c75.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3719734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No28c73.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes28c70.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.432,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1853…6c81backed Yes32c67.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.98933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No35c66.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.082,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes30c66.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.413738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No50c66.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.822,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes78c63.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.861365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes32c61.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5533351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes29c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6125239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.27628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No24c58.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.732,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c57.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.889,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes35c57.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5742151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0450…bd51backed Yes28c57.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.362653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No75c56.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.273,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed Yes48c54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0922959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No35c53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.625,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No76c50.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5681848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes26c50.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7514332.2%46 W · 97 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec36…20fabacked Yes30c50.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3646452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.11,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No44c49.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.64546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0a92backed Yes74c47.7$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9398565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes74c46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No68c43.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5425258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No71c41.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8738961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes27c40.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.17732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.619531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9775…b70dbacked Yes70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126248.4%30 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes40c37.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1226142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No38c36.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.735337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed No68c35.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4818365.6%120 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No71c35.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.262,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes32c35.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1421272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ec4…cb91backed No68c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.87170.4%50 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed No70c34.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.596162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes41c34.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.384856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes55c34.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.585,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes34c33.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.563,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No49c33.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.661,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked Yes61c32.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9416263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes61c32.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8282268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c32.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.954,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No73c30.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.528661.6%53 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe801…764fbacked No66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205872.4%42 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c30.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.447,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.22,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9627769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No67c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4447569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes60c28.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4539966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c28.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.713,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No69c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3299571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes37c27.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3755538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.552,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No60c27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.072,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No61c25.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0879255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No51c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.241,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked No55c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6523060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No66c22.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0362555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No78c22.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2388973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No68c21.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5825766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes56c21.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.551,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes74c20.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2452446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd68a…fdc0backed No68c19.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.171,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.