Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b65cfb273f5dfd91c1828b5777d9299101e694dc69c4b1f9aaefc5d37c3368e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 347.8$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.65 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 41c | 326.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.19 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 322$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 302.06$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 60c | 291.02$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.05 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 77c | 260.51$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 238.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 26c | 226.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 207$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 197.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 193.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…b6ddbacked Yes | 72c | 193.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 73c | 183.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 28c | 175.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.31 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 61c | 164.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 151.82$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 139.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 130.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 60c | 117.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 116.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 27c | 112.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 54c | 85.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 41c | 85.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 30c | 81.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 80.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 76.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 76.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 38c | 75.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 75.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 73.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 70.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…6c81backed Yes | 32c | 67.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 66.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 66.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 63.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 32c | 61.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 24c | 58.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 57.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 57.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 28c | 57.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 56.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 76c | 50.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 26c | 50.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec36…20fabacked Yes | 30c | 50.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 44c | 49.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 74c | 47.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 68c | 43.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 71c | 41.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 27c | 40.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 40c | 37.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 38c | 36.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 68c | 35.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 35.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 32c | 35.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 70c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 41c | 34.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 34.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 33.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 49c | 33.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 61c | 32.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 32.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 73c | 30.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 30.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 60c | 28.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 28.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 37c | 27.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 25.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 22.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 22.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 68c | 21.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 21.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 74c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68a…fdc0backed No | 68c | 19.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.