Earnings · resolved market
Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe6d27fdd8c7aaa58419c1b755af3cad99c70916201aeb7178431c58290c9d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked No | 33c | 276.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 62c | 239.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…0bd6backed Yes | 66c | 226.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 34c | 148.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked No | 24c | 146.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed No | 29c | 138.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…9577backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 67c | 124.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa98…af7fbacked Yes | 75c | 120.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 19c | 119.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 90.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 34c | 82.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 55.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…7601backed Yes | 75c | 52.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…0bfcbacked Yes | 64c | 46.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a7c1backed Yes | 74c | 42.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…c2ddbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…24b2backed Yes | 80c | 31.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…9df4backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 76c | 23.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…a516backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44f…84c7backed Yes | 79c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…a0b8backed Yes | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…b3e2backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…9a37backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.