Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x100e4ab09e98f6b1585387862b0003f9714d7c5ed7936fd9177698ace8165ead
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,732$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 1,429$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 3c | 1,038$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…6090backed Yes | 4c | 699.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 656.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 628.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 3c | 539.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 3c | 529.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…ff16backed Yes | 17c | 477.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 451.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 6c | 450$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 6c | 426.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes | 10c | 390.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 338.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 313.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 6c | 299.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 7c | 270.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…6af3backed Yes | 8c | 237.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 13c | 231.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 9c | 223.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 13c | 217.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 9c | 209.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 208.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…faedbacked Yes | 11c | 195.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 184.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 163.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 12c | 159.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 19c | 131.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 130.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 14c | 117.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 12c | 109.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 11c | 108.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 16c | 96.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 17c | 91.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…0d41backed Yes | 14c | 83.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 14c | 77.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 15c | 64.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 22c | 53.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…362dbacked No | 80c | 24.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.