Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3db198b22396d96e11dc7111bb2699c6d229033c563ab9927117157f62baa5e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 2c | 1,794$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,008$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 746.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 3c | 662.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 568.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 7c | 538.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 524.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 4c | 513.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 509.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 7c | 395.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 395.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…cf8ebacked Yes | 7c | 367.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 364.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 343.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 6c | 328.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 304.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 21c | 304.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 17c | 293.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 4c | 290.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 4c | 279.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 7c | 261.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 4c | 261.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 8c | 249.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 6c | 216.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 6c | 213.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 210.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…faedbacked Yes | 8c | 194.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 13c | 164.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 7c | 153.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 12c | 148.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 8c | 144.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 10c | 142.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 136.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 18c | 131.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 126.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 21c | 114.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 110.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 78c | 99.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…d9fabacked Yes | 19c | 57.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 25c | 47.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 23c | 46.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 26c | 42.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 36.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 77c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 75c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.