Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a034a47d5feefb267af8e9ec38398d31ff95f1738f0fed9dae83deb51ddef75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 0c | 7,543$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 2,366$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd01…c83dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,687$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 20c | 596.41$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 484.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 6c | 413.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 409.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 9c | 394.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 373.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 350.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 325.01$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 55c | 323.8$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed Yes | 29c | 297.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 287.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 248.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 8c | 242.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 229.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 24c | 228.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes | 53c | 227.21$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 226.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 220.84$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 76c | 217.02$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 213.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 211.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 35c | 211.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 44c | 211.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…6743backed Yes | 21c | 206.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 33c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…49f2backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 189.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 48c | 179.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 54c | 174.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 57c | 167.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 163.31$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 161.09$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…6987backed Yes | 57c | 150.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 46c | 143.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 33c | 142.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 39c | 135.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 134.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 62c | 132.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 55c | 127.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 35c | 126.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 50c | 125.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 47c | 125.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 20c | 123.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 9c | 120.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 116.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 54c | 110.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 49c | 109.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 65c | 108.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 42c | 105.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…064cbacked Yes | 60c | 104.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 103.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 44c | 101.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 45c | 99.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 54c | 98.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 65c | 96.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 60c | 96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 46c | 95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed Yes | 51c | 93.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 86.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 85.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 33c | 84.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…0d9fbacked Yes | 59c | 80.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…06b0backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0baa…ff26backed Yes | 36c | 77.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 53c | 77.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 63c | 75.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 31c | 74.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x585a…26ecbacked Yes | 34c | 73.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No | 45c | 73.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 71.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 66c | 71.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 69.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…d9fabacked Yes | 27c | 68.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 31c | 67.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed No | 36c | 64.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed93…037cbacked Yes | 36c | 64.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 31c | 63.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 62.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 77c | 61.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 34c | 59.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 44c | 54.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 44c | 54.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 53.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 58c | 49.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 37c | 49.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 46c | 48.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.