TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,902

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,375 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8444…1cf9backed No8c1,436$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No23c1,357$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8457544.7%257 W · 318 L+36.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No67c1,277$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.5411874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd01…c83dbacked No1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1160%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked No19c1,100$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1635018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c814.65$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.997,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No4c809.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8496620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes67c730.09$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.821833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes25c664.33$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.0942315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes40c625.87$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.511,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No62c609.13$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.681,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c604.17$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.842,50569.7%1,746 W · 759 L+77.7wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No43c582.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.882,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No2c562.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.682,29917.8%409 W · 1,890 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No14c540.29$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.661,02340.1%410 W · 613 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68fe…469fbacked Yes43c486.14$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes55c450.13$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked No5c416.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.263941%16 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c396.14$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c362.56$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.078,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad2e…95f1backed Yes40c356.48$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.65771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+76.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes68c341.59$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.11,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes35c325.21$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.873644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No19c318.07$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0185330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e18…064cbacked Yes47c302.52$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.471060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed Yes70c299.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.421855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No11c293$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.136123.8%86 W · 275 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes56c288.82$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.44562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes43c283.13$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No67c278.08$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.428969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes32c257.45$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.2620141.3%83 W · 118 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes37c249.84$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes50c243.88$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.637146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ab8…6743backed No25c240.05$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.731030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c215.14$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.253,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes40c209.18$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.583333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes62c207.43$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.22,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No66c201.75$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1422675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No67c196.62$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes67c195.43$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.261,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c194.13$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.286,85439.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L+266.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes57c193.23$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.45735.1%20 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes39c190.61$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7423738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No63c189.86$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12098571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c185.18$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9112,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes42c172.93$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.121,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No7c172.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0523035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes48c168.65$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5996633.3%322 W · 644 L+27.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed Yes29c168.64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.127936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19a1…5f66backed No10c168.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes44c161.24$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2445148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes41c154.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c151.79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.467,56437.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L+95.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes31c151.49$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9510853.7%58 W · 50 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes68c151.06$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6125842.2%109 W · 149 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes47c147.1$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.572536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No52c145.76$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.911,62737.8%615 W · 1,012 L+23.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No44c145.48$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4832049.7%159 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes34c143.16$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7711038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No55c142.44$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3430859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No67c141.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.899176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes52c138.86$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0313930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes47c133.52$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.351,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes28c130.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.622028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No62c129.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.012,26539.6%896 W · 1,369 L-56.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No59c129.21$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1626566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes66c127.89$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8255342.9%237 W · 316 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e3…8973backed Yes76c126.04$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.541154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes44c126$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No68c125.18$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6718272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c123.57$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.73,41131.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L-37.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b33…044ebacked Yes38c123.42$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.522138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9795…1b84backed No61c119.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.19520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-70.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes24c119.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0945619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes50c115.08$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.118250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec4c…f5bdbacked No49c114.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8783…d1aabacked Yes42c112.15$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.671662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c112$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.689,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes37c109.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.56336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes21c107.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.563,91623.2%910 W · 3,006 L+124.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes45c107.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2429640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe731…55b9backed Yes45c106.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.073847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No59c103.38$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.031,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d72…5f50backed Yes29c102.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.091258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No65c102.55$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7516575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked No55c102.04$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4320928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.52147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes34c99.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.971,11123.7%263 W · 848 L+72.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed Yes78c99.05$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.678872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes51c97.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.733450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No49c96.76$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.241,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6536…0cf6backed Yes31c94.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.564320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No48c91.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8819152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes35c90.44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.972,27214.8%336 W · 1,936 L+52.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x108f…ee30backed Yes46c88.72$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x358a…9eccbacked Yes46c87.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.64850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No58c85.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5717633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes41c85.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7829770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c84.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.844,01435.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No61c83.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1515155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.