Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d02b816a03059391531d42c0c86476c02d0d954031f3e6c4c9be2c78280275b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 8c | 1,436$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 23c | 1,357$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.84 | 575 | 44.7%257 W · 318 L | +36.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 67c | 1,277$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.54 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd01…c83dbacked No | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 19c | 1,100$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.16 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 814.65$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 4c | 809.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…bc46backed Yes | 67c | 730.09$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.82 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 664.33$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.09 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 625.87$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 609.13$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 604.17$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.84 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 43c | 582.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.88 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 2c | 562.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 14c | 540.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…469fbacked Yes | 43c | 486.14$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 55c | 450.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.27 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 5c | 416.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 396.14$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 362.56$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.07 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…95f1backed Yes | 40c | 356.48$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 68c | 341.59$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 35c | 325.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.87 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 19c | 318.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…064cbacked Yes | 47c | 302.52$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 11c | 293$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 361 | 23.8%86 W · 275 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 56c | 288.82$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 43c | 283.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.06 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 67c | 278.08$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.42 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 32c | 257.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.26 | 201 | 41.3%83 W · 118 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 37c | 249.84$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 50c | 243.88$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.63 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…6743backed No | 25c | 240.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 215.14$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 40c | 209.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 207.43$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 66c | 201.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.14 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 67c | 196.62$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 67c | 195.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 194.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 57c | 193.23$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 39c | 190.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 189.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 185.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 42c | 172.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 7c | 172.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 48c | 168.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 966 | 33.3%322 W · 644 L | +27.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 29c | 168.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…5f66backed No | 10c | 168.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 44c | 161.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 154.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 151.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 31c | 151.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 68c | 151.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 47c | 147.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 145.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 1,627 | 37.8%615 W · 1,012 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 44c | 145.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 320 | 49.7%159 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 34c | 143.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 55c | 142.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 67c | 141.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 52c | 138.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 133.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 130.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 129.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 59c | 129.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 127.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 553 | 42.9%237 W · 316 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…8973backed Yes | 76c | 126.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 44c | 126$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 68c | 125.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 123.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 38c | 123.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1b84backed No | 61c | 119.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 119.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 50c | 115.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…f5bdbacked No | 49c | 114.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…d1aabacked Yes | 42c | 112.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 112$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 37c | 109.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 107.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 107.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 45c | 106.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 59c | 103.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed Yes | 29c | 102.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 65c | 102.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 55c | 102.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 99.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 1,111 | 23.7%263 W · 848 L | +72.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 78c | 99.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 51c | 97.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 96.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 31c | 94.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 48c | 91.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 35c | 90.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…ee30backed Yes | 46c | 88.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…9eccbacked Yes | 46c | 87.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 58c | 85.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 41c | 85.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 84.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 61c | 83.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.