Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Francesco Maestrelli vs Novak Djokovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102f3751ac5c8ef003721f894e7dfa68c7937131c5b542d901da89527f7b263f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Djokovicof Maestrelli, Djokovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Maestrelli | 2c | 30,880$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.84 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Maestrelli | 2c | 23,980$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.04 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Maestrelli | 1c | 7,346$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Maestrelli | 2c | 3,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Maestrelli | 1c | 2,771$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…eda1backed Maestrelli | 5c | 2,580$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Maestrelli | 3c | 1,774$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maestrelli | 2c | 1,683$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Maestrelli | 2c | 1,400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Maestrelli | 3c | 1,367$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Maestrelli | 2c | 1,266$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Maestrelli | 2c | 1,024$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Maestrelli | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec2…59e6backed Maestrelli | 5c | 818.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maestrelli | 2c | 802.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Maestrelli | 3c | 762.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Maestrelli | 2c | 722.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…85dbbacked Maestrelli | 3c | 713.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Maestrelli | 2c | 641.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Maestrelli | 3c | 621.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Maestrelli | 3c | 588.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Maestrelli | 3c | 461.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Maestrelli | 2c | 435$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…bfe9backed Maestrelli | 5c | 204.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Francesco Maestrelli vs Novak Djokovicthis page
- Maestrelli vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Maestrelli vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Maestrelli vs DjokovicDjokovic won
- Set Handicap: Djokovic (-2.5) vs Maestrelli (+2.5)Djokovic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.