Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10349623f618a2f693cb818c42257bc5824438fee77b702843108e4b9887056c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 40c | 1,750$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 648.65$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.46 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 31c | 558.51$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.14 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 68c | 406.42$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 30c | 393.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 31c | 276$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 9c | 239.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Under | 71c | 225$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 29c | 199.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 151.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 69c | 130.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 122.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 29c | 95.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 31c | 92.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 31c | 57.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 45c | 51.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 70c | 43.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 36c | 40.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 31c | 39.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Over | 30c | 34.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…b90bbacked Under | 71c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…140dbacked Under | 54c | 18.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.