Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b34d54d981053ac9a0911cc0c05aeafba5d419242600477156ec3501bd5fca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 67c | 6,657$4,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,171.51 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 32c | 2,299$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.48 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 33c | 2,171$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.36 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 32c | 2,061$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.58 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 32c | 1,096$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Yes | 67c | 1,015$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.93 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 69c | 914$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.24 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…0c67backed Yes | 67c | 495$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 69c | 412$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.4 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 34c | 290.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked No | 32c | 276$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 33c | 255.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 30c | 242.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Yes | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed No | 34c | 209$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 33c | 200.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 36c | 180$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Yes | 67c | 164.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 34c | 147$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 31c | 142.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 33c | 141$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 32c | 119.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…c06dbacked No | 35c | 114.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 68c | 89.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Yes | 26c | 76.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 32c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed No | 34c | 62.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 63c | 59.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 33c | 53.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3509…9e45backed Yes | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Yes | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 34c | 37.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 66c | 31.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb864…c92ebacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…ccedbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…bbd5backed Yes | 67c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 68c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…e682backed Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.