Mls · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc57b47da5f576cc4a6b3538d09fb2c6abf2619881bb953792586b540cb85c09d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Timbersof Chicago Fire FC, Portland Timbers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d5…66d8backed Portland Timbers | 61c | 10,911$6,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,255.15 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 1,568$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.52 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked Portland Timbers | 60c | 1,163$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.28 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Portland Timbers | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Portland Timbers | 61c | 986.51$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.74 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Fire FC | 41c | 862.49$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Chicago Fire FC | 43c | 835.88$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.79 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 763$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.48 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 749$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.11 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 733$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.76 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 631$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.09 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Fire FC | 47c | 588.44$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.06 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked Chicago Fire FC | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 485.85$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.69 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Fire FC | 38c | 385.9$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.06 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 276$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Portland Timbers | 38c | 234.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Portland Timbers | 62c | 205.58$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Chicago Fire FC | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Portland Timbers | 65c | 164.94$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 156$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Portland Timbers | 59c | 152.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Fire FC | 37c | 149.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Portland Timbers | 62c | 144.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Chicago Fire FC | 41c | 142$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Portland Timbers | 28c | 129.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Chicago Fire FC | 49c | 118.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Fire FC | 37c | 113.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Chicago Fire FC | 38c | 104.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Portland Timbers | 65c | 102.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Fire FC | 41c | 101.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Portland Timbers | 62c | 81.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed Portland Timbers | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Portland Timbers | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Portland Timbers | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Chicago Fire FC | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Chicago Fire FC | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Portland Timbers | 59c | 38.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Chicago Fire FC | 43c | 38.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Portland Timbers | 62c | 37.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Chicago Fire FC | 33c | 35.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Portland Timbers | 60c | 32.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Chicago Fire FC | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Chicago Fire FC | 78c | 31.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Chicago Fire FC | 44c | 30.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Chicago Fire FC | 41c | 28.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked Chicago Fire FC | 36c | 28.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Chicago Fire FC | 41c | 25.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Chicago Fire FC | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Fire FC | 68c | 23.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Portland Timbers | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Portland Timbers | 64c | 19.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.