Mls · resolved market

Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f94077c096b18bcb0e5ae6144e96b9dcfeef2560c2363359c7a25ca80b966a8

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,865 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Mls
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	57c	13,550$7,723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,826.47	483	44.9%217 W · 266 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4348…f08abacked Under	44c	8,981$3,949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,949.33	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	42c	5,109$2,138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,138.2	871	54.6%476 W · 395 L	+34.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over	68c	3,656$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,155.7	190	44.7%85 W · 105 L	+9.4wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb964…033ebacked Under	6c	2,583$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	54	46.3%25 W · 29 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	29c	2,571$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.2	989	45.4%449 W · 540 L	-23.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over	72c	1,479$1,065 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.17	702	49.7%349 W · 353 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	66c	1,299$859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.67	362	47.2%171 W · 191 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	67c	1,112$746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$366.03	1,262	45.2%571 W · 691 L	-28.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ae…d35bbacked Under	55c	1,048$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.19	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	72c	590.64$425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.38	728	50.7%369 W · 359 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Under	43c	542$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.06	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Under	43c	465.1$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3d…d65dbacked Over	73c	410.95$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.96	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under	28c	364$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.92	201	33.3%67 W · 134 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under	27c	276$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.52	529	23.8%126 W · 403 L	-25.8wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-18%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over	79c	264$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.74	90	70%63 W · 27 L	+11.7wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+24%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Under	42c	255$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.18	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa68…ba5dbacked Under	28c	207.46$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	128	39.8%51 W · 77 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	28c	199.06$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.99	3,012	43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L	-29.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…f983backed Under	6c	195.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-83.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	62c	183$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.28	443	50.6%224 W · 219 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under	43c	182$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.26	233	50.6%118 W · 115 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	41c	180.19$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.68	820	44.5%365 W · 455 L	-16.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under	29c	172$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.88	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3824…e756backed Under	58c	170.02$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.03	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Over	72c	163.59$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.81	140	62.1%87 W · 53 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	27c	163.47$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.67	971	46.1%448 W · 523 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	71c	161.63$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.87	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over	73c	135$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.45	355	50.4%179 W · 176 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	28c	124.85$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.96	1,444	36.8%532 W · 912 L	-12.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under	39c	111.2$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.19	94	37.2%35 W · 59 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	66c	109.79$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.53	444	47.3%210 W · 234 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over	73c	109.48$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.56	74	60.8%45 W · 29 L	+12.8wins	+0.17per pick	44cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Over	72c	103.65$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.02	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-19%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	76	34.2%26 W · 50 L	-8.4wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	56c	87.99$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.72	802	49.8%399 W · 403 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	28c	86.35$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	351	49.6%174 W · 177 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under	46c	85$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.71	228	41.7%95 W · 133 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Over	64c	77.9$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.88	125	71.2%89 W · 36 L	+19.9wins	+0.16per pick	55cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under	39c	68.25$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.75	196	41.3%81 W · 115 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over	66c	62$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.36	314	46.5%146 W · 168 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	71c	59.97$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.09	204	49%100 W · 104 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Over	73c	59.88$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.17	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f1…f02dbacked Under	44c	59.39$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.13	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over	64c	56$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.11	198	52.5%104 W · 94 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bc1…eebebacked Under	42c	50$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	352	47.7%168 W · 184 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under	43c	48.6$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	55	58.2%32 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Under	43c	46.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	86	24.4%21 W · 65 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	72c	37$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.41	99	44.4%44 W · 55 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Under	43c	34.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0536…c50bbacked Under	62c	32.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under	51c	31.11$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+4.0wins	+0.16per pick	48cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	307	35.2%108 W · 199 L	-32.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over	72c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	264	50%132 W · 132 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	70c	28.4$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.52	294	60.5%178 W · 116 L	+36.5wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	461	56.2%259 W · 202 L	+13.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9545…d6f7backed Over	72c	20.83$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.83	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	44	70.5%31 W · 13 L	+4.3wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5this page
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Over won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 0.5Over won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 5.5Under won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 0.5Over won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Under won
Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event