Mls · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d6a6d8faf321244091ae865a27157c6536abfdaaf5943aa1d366b239e2f518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Timbersof Chicago Fire FC, Portland Timbers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Fire FC | 24c | 363.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Portland Timbers | 78c | 309.15$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Portland Timbers | 77c | 150.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Fire FC | 21c | 139.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Portland Timbers | 77c | 92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Portland Timbers | 79c | 86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Chicago Fire FC | 23c | 70.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Portland Timbers | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Chicago Fire FC | 20c | 64.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Portland Timbers | 77c | 61.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Fire FC | 21c | 61.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Chicago Fire FC | 21c | 48.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Chicago Fire FC | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Portland Timbers | 79c | 29.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Portland Timbers | 76c | 28.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Portland Timbers | 75c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Portland Timbers | 77c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…18a2backed Portland Timbers | 78c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Portland Timbers | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.