Dota2 · resolved market
LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10350c0fe1ab43290d515a2ef8d3a30bed035f68c358569296f2cbc2e130f846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 51c | 1,209$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.29 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 52c | 1,030$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.2 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 42c | 859.58$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.32 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 42c | 854.62$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.69 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 21c | 783.87$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 47c | 650.76$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.71 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…ca87backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…ab19backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Yes | 61c | 526.89$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.89 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 47c | 468$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.87 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…8427backed No | 63c | 417.39$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Yes | 37c | 412.7$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yes | 67c | 194.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 31c | 164.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 69c | 117.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 29c | 115.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 18c | 102.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 68c | 96.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked No | 31c | 91.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed No | 78c | 62.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 75c | 50.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…dddabacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro: Draw (1-1)?this page
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?No won
- Virtus.pro to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.