Dota2 · resolved market
LGD Gaming to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7d2c7be5c2d6123206a90ed86e3971a033c2007ba23587445580f99c3250b12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 56c | 7,039$3,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,971.51 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 47c | 2,116$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.16 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 46c | 1,851$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.77 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 41c | 1,025$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.48 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 44c | 974.91$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.25 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 42c | 691.54$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.96 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe705…f910backed No | 44c | 674.06$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.47 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…c7debacked No | 42c | 520.68$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…6427backed No | 64c | 507.81$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.81 | 77 | 70.1%54 W · 23 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 40c | 364.93$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.74 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 44c | 350$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.5 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…258abacked No | 41c | 290.66$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 60c | 277.87$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked No | 34c | 227.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Yes | 64c | 215.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…ae12backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 32c | 153.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 51c | 125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed No | 44c | 118.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -11.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 56c | 98.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 46c | 82.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 67c | 81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 44c | 76.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed No | 45c | 74.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Yes | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…1813backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac5fbacked Yes | 64c | 43.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ec81backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…736bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 44c | 35.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 58c | 26.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…281fbacked No | 44c | 25.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 45c | 23.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?this page
- LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
- Virtus.pro to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.