Dota2 · resolved market
Virtus.pro to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd485655938a5816bb8d2cbf20ef6e283001d68a57d17ec70472ab50ec11a22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 6c | 6,633$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.81 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 77c | 2,259$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.26 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…0242backed Yes | 14c | 2,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 70c | 1,817$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.14 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 36c | 1,379$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.54 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yes | 30c | 942.32$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.13 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 70c | 813.31$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.76 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 34c | 805.25$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.09 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 30c | 643.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.11 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 36c | 605.2$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.24 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 28c | 548.75$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 72c | 415.07$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 66c | 306.02$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 48c | 288$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 22c | 245$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…fd61backed No | 80c | 204$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…6761backed Yes | 14c | 187.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 22c | 172.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 80c | 114.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked No | 48c | 103.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 75.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…4024backed No | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked No | 44c | 68.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 28c | 50.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 75c | 50.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed No | 43c | 39.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed No | 34c | 32.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cf…5507backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 73c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Virtus.pro to win 2-0?this page
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?No won
- LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.