TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jelena Ostapenko vs Anna Kalinskaya

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kalinskayaof Ostapenko, Kalinskaya
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$257,564

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,793 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Ostapenko38c22,312$8,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,537.112,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ostapenko35c10,486$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,659.837,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Ostapenko1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kalinskaya66c9,397$6,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,205.782,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kalinskaya77c9,066$6,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.268,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Kalinskaya65c8,875$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,074.7736968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Kalinskaya70c7,143$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.275860.3%35 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Ostapenko33c5,210$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,712.512,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Ostapenko48c4,249$2,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.2381349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Kalinskaya33c4,218$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.3935247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Kalinskaya71c3,659$2,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.3880938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Ostapenko32c3,653$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.022,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Kalinskaya67c3,170$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.1521147.9%101 W · 110 L-16.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Kalinskaya35c2,932$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.7955646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Ostapenko47c2,695$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.181,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab15…ab10backed Kalinskaya70c2,559$1,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.45683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ostapenko33c1,734$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.4311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Kalinskaya33c1,646$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.575853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kalinskaya66c1,629$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.4665647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Ostapenko33c1,627$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.8918439.1%72 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Kalinskaya74c1,576$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.891,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed0…dd5ebacked Kalinskaya61c1,540$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.9410943.1%47 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Ostapenko35c1,523$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.8150731.2%158 W · 349 L-41.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Kalinskaya67c1,454$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.9669249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Ostapenko14c1,392$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6222641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Ostapenko34c1,370$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.7930131.9%96 W · 205 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Ostapenko31c1,315$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9816743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Kalinskaya52c1,312$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.9698240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Ostapenko46c1,114$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51028444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Kalinskaya52c1,106$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.0249143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed Ostapenko26c1,012$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1210547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Kalinskaya37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63081938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Kalinskaya53c999.99$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4701,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Kalinskaya67c977.61$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.5530241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf475…f2debacked Ostapenko46c927.17$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.711464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Ostapenko33c849$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.1765558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ostapenko30c831.98$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.431,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Kalinskaya48c829.03$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.0366949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…27ffbacked Kalinskaya64c779.69$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.691070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Ostapenko28c775.55$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21825152.6%132 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Kalinskaya66c774.59$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.3676146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Ostapenko70c750$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.945457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e1…f9a8backed Kalinskaya70c744.29$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.299744.3%43 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Ostapenko34c735.59$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Kalinskaya34c729.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.3346553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Kalinskaya56c722.35$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.361,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Ostapenko36c699.12$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.791,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Ostapenko27c687$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.492552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Ostapenko25c679.65$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17011428.9%33 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Ostapenko17c665.46$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.712722%28 W · 99 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7cc…b660backed Kalinskaya42c600$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3487017.1%12 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Ostapenko38c564.39$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.646,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Kalinskaya68c558.11$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1139431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Ostapenko50c552.75$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6744448.9%217 W · 227 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Ostapenko29c515$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15039850%199 W · 199 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Kalinskaya60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20012951.9%67 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Ostapenko53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2654742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Ostapenko67c496.51$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.6630645.1%138 W · 168 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x640b…ec00backed Kalinskaya51c484.78$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.729738.1%37 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Ostapenko42c476.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d8…1496backed Kalinskaya41c461.53$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.533948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Kalinskaya71c428.66$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.152,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Kalinskaya55c427.93$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.5738348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Ostapenko56c400$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22524060.8%146 W · 94 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Kalinskaya59c400$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16610247.1%48 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc29…422abacked Ostapenko33c378.48$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.913727.7%38 W · 99 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Kalinskaya67c375$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.499044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kalinskaya61c350.81$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.763,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Kalinskaya56c341$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.497046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Ostapenko32c334.48$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Ostapenko78c320.51$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25069350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kalinskaya49c314.15$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.374,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Kalinskaya64c312.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6626847%126 W · 142 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Ostapenko32c310.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.831,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Kalinskaya55c308$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.511,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x795f…fbdabacked Ostapenko33c305.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9711417.5%20 W · 94 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Ostapenko29c300$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9518636%67 W · 119 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Ostapenko67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20116665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Ostapenko51c294.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Ostapenko34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017432.2%56 W · 118 L-15.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Kalinskaya38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.1616648.8%81 W · 85 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Kalinskaya23c245.91$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.359040%36 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Kalinskaya67c236.61$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0818957.7%109 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Ostapenko33c227.24$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9930744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Ostapenko37c220$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.49248.9%45 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Ostapenko43c212.62$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5937854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Kalinskaya54c201.89$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.871,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ostapenko30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Ostapenko24c196.67$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.513,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xd571…d24abacked Kalinskaya26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.3120643.2%89 W · 117 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Ostapenko34c190.92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.221,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Ostapenko31c190.03$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.249833.7%33 W · 65 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Ostapenko33c189.24$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4512450.8%63 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Kalinskaya61c187.33$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3360661.2%371 W · 235 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Kalinskaya64c187.03$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.333745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Ostapenko33c181.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6031643%136 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef80…7654backed Ostapenko11c180.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.93033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Ostapenko34c179.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.227344.7%122 W · 151 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Kalinskaya57c176.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7152460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da2…ed3abacked Kalinskaya66c175.76$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7610668.9%73 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.