NFL · resolved market
Raiders vs. 49ers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1044aa08aff25e27c01d9faa26e007abd463efdfa85c176e007dae2db6658af7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Raiders, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Raiders | 23c | 13,870$3,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,682.84 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed 49ers | 79c | 10,848$8,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,523.94 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Raiders | 25c | 9,795$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,301.37 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed 49ers | 75c | 4,285$3,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,232.18 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Raiders | 27c | 2,679$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.29 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Raiders | 22c | 1,439$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.23 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Raiders | 27c | 1,300$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.3 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed 49ers | 66c | 1,251$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.32 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Raiders | 23c | 986.7$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.69 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked 49ers | 70c | 950$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked Raiders | 25c | 930$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Raiders | 21c | 787.36$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.42 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed 49ers | 77c | 777.54$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.57 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Raiders | 12c | 677.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed 49ers | 77c | 641.72$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked 49ers | 67c | 531.81$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.84 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Raiders | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed 49ers | 73c | 488.43$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.12 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Raiders | 42c | 433.9$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.78 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Raiders | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Raiders | 8c | 400$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Raiders | 21c | 398.58$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.88 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed 49ers | 72c | 352.1$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.51 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…c405backed 49ers | 57c | 305.76$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…d431backed Raiders | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Raiders | 20c | 271.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed 49ers | 75c | 250$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed 49ers | 76c | 219.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.19 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021b…3c73backed Raiders | 38c | 210.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…5d95backed 49ers | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed 49ers | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…cc96backed Raiders | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked 49ers | 65c | 192.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked 49ers | 71c | 187.14$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.8 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Raiders | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Raiders | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed 49ers | 70c | 149.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Raiders | 18c | 131.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.83 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…4aeebacked 49ers | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked 49ers | 69c | 122$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed 49ers | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…bc56backed Raiders | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…cb78backed Raiders | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Raiders | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…9818backed Raiders | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Raiders | 16c | 80.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…bf84backed 49ers | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked 49ers | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Raiders | 39c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed 49ers | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Raiders | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…f77ebacked 49ers | 79c | 48.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Raiders | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed 49ers | 71c | 37.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…4d04backed Raiders | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed 49ers | 75c | 25.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…adf2backed 49ers | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.