NFL · resolved market
Will Jaxson Dart be the third QB taken in the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10c54a1e29428a2201d96eb5cdb76a2403d1046c1fb02d8bd311a6e8e45b8ed3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 4c | 2,041$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…b462backed No | 52c | 1,290$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +213.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…d90ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…5eddbacked Yes | 48c | 1,065$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…28b9backed No | 52c | 990$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…22a2backed Yes | 44c | 985$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c03…21d0backed Yes | 49c | 985$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 68c | 921.78$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…d3c4backed Yes | 49c | 895$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 46c | 864.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.78 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a7…b410backed No | 53c | 740$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…629cbacked Yes | 47c | 730$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…f2d0backed Yes | 48c | 710$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6223…c602backed No | 52c | 645$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…ab21backed No | 51c | 615$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9040…9e22backed No | 56c | 605$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5d…ccb7backed No | 54c | 605$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 43c | 479.61$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.25 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…9204backed No | 52c | 380$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…21fcbacked No | 53c | 380$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d62…f8eabacked No | 56c | 345$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe357…e06dbacked Yes | 48c | 280$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 48c | 258$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…403cbacked No | 52c | 235$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…47e9backed Yes | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…a755backed Yes | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…45edbacked Yes | 48c | 215$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed Yes | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bf7ebacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 42c | 197$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…14cabacked No | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…ead5backed No | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…0486backed No | 51c | 195$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…11f3backed Yes | 49c | 195$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a2…28edbacked No | 52c | 185$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…330abacked No | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 49c | 171.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…674dbacked Yes | 52c | 143.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…6db6backed Yes | 45c | 139.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…07f2backed Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…b68fbacked Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…2e13backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 62c | 88.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 85.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 76.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…fee5backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…e91abacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…96e0backed No | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 57.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…3505backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 51c | 54.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 50c | 53.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213b…fe55backed Yes | 74c | 40.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…8182backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed Yes | 39c | 27.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…5814backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…ccf3backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jaxson Dart be the third QB taken in the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will Jalen Milroe be the third QB taken in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Quinn Ewers be the third QB taken in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Shedeur Sanders be the third QB taken in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Tyler Shough be the third QB taken in the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.