CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs HOTU - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x110b555b680274055009e3ad8d3998876fbc7faa41cf960a82af871d3aafcd54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed HOTU | 11c | 610.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…79d3backed HOTU | 9c | 523.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed HOTU | 29c | 382.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed 100 Thieves | 77c | 256.35$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 223 | 65%145 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked HOTU | 18c | 223.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…1496backed HOTU | 52c | 194.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed 100 Thieves | 75c | 157.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed 100 Thieves | 57c | 156.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 227 | 34.4%78 W · 149 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed 100 Thieves | 63c | 156.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…4332backed 100 Thieves | 64c | 141.72$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | -17.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 100 Thieves | 66c | 140.11$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed HOTU | 27c | 136.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…3b75backed HOTU | 21c | 133.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 183 | 42.1%77 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed HOTU | 22c | 131.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 484 | 37.6%182 W · 302 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed HOTU | 16c | 127.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27e…d69dbacked HOTU | 18c | 105.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +12.7wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed 100 Thieves | 68c | 100.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked HOTU | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…9728backed HOTU | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed HOTU | 46c | 76.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c40…44a1backed HOTU | 26c | 55.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…fe9abacked HOTU | 45c | 54.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 187 | 36.9%69 W · 118 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed 100 Thieves | 57c | 47.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2b…a9e4backed HOTU | 39c | 47.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ab…5080backed 100 Thieves | 80c | 44.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked 100 Thieves | 71c | 38.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34c0…b0e0backed HOTU | 47c | 33.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…31d6backed 100 Thieves | 80c | 32.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 278 | 31.7%88 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked 100 Thieves | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked 100 Thieves | 71c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ea34backed 100 Thieves | 69c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed 100 Thieves | 74c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs HOTU - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs HOTU (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Qualifier Playoffs100 Thieves won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs HOTU - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.