Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x113eaf74fb1808083b8ddbc5bd618969a2070f3e8ce703458376abc5bf0a8aa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed No | 1c | 1,127$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 59c | 463.22$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.79 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 428.69$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 79c | 426.33$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 47c | 392.46$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 387.42$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 321.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 47c | 286.89$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 244.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.31 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 236.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.39 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 52c | 221.81$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 214.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 40c | 183.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 166.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 12c | 161.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed Yes | 51c | 158.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 155.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 23c | 146$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 144.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 46c | 129.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 49c | 124.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 46c | 112.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 112.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 102.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 56c | 101.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 93.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 91.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 74c | 90.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 77c | 82.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 58c | 81.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 59c | 80.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 36c | 80.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 63.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No | 27c | 60.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 59.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 38c | 57.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 57.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 55.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…c821backed No | 56c | 54.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 47c | 54.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 39c | 50.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 59c | 47.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 45.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 54c | 44.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 46c | 44.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 69c | 42.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 30c | 41.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 32c | 40.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 38.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 38.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 51c | 36.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 33.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 46c | 33.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 69c | 33.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 55c | 31.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 30.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 37c | 30.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 41c | 29.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 62c | 28.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 48c | 28.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…8e3bbacked Yes | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 63c | 26.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 45c | 26.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 54c | 24.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…307cbacked Yes | 65c | 23.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…ae57backed No | 49c | 22.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 74c | 22.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…95a9backed Yes | 50c | 20.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…8b8cbacked No | 76c | 19.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 56c | 17.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 79c | 15.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…e1ccbacked Yes | 68c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 79c | 12.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.