Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4acd6bf78ada7406cc144dfe6cc90c5c582657771831d89d52c5f020bdac62d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 35c | 1,052$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.19 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 27c | 894.16$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.55 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 74c | 560.3$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.13 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 15c | 502.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 472.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 75c | 462.48$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 433.78$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 376.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 6c | 331.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 314.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 310.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 242.05$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed No | 63c | 225.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 33c | 222.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…4512backed Yes | 18c | 207.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 20c | 204.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 77c | 199.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 21c | 194.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 15c | 175.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 79c | 170.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 163.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 139.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 64c | 135.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 78c | 130.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 122.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 40c | 119.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 15c | 119.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 116.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 64c | 116.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 114.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 113.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 21c | 113.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…e18cbacked Yes | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 108.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 17c | 106.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked No | 66c | 98.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 15c | 98.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 93.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 19c | 90.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 22c | 87.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 14c | 85.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 78c | 83.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 23c | 82.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 80.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 17c | 78.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 32c | 77.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 25c | 77.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 21c | 74.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 18c | 70.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 58c | 67.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 66.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 65.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 45c | 64.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 22c | 62.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 21c | 62.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 24c | 59.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 24c | 57.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 48c | 56.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 65c | 53.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 19c | 52.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 42c | 50.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 22c | 49.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 79c | 49.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 59c | 48.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 48.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 24c | 48.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…7156backed Yes | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 28c | 47.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 24c | 43.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 39.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 54c | 39.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed No | 80c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 70c | 27.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 80c | 26.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…88cebacked No | 70c | 23.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 62c | 23.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…7731backed No | 76c | 22.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…1810backed No | 76c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 73c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…4e56backed No | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e6…c337backed No | 76c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 77c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…6c4abacked No | 80c | 14.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.