Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10a74df87d14ba7c20b39e59674b9db3f2ac3a95d0c41dc3388e2643086a02c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 14c | 636.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 14c | 586.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 444.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 387.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 378.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 375.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 278.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 244$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 242.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 221.23$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 199.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 10c | 169.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 131.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 75c | 126.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 126.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 78c | 121.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 116.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 27c | 113.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 103.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…21a8backed No | 74c | 103.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 24c | 101.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 101.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 11c | 100.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 98.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 15c | 97.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 95.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 18c | 91.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 89.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 13c | 81.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 73.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 76c | 69.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 77c | 63.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 63.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed No | 69c | 62.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 26c | 60.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 24c | 59.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 78c | 58.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…17fbbacked Yes | 34c | 55.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 23c | 51.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 22c | 50.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 27c | 50.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 45.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 78c | 43.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 77c | 38.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 79c | 37.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…5553backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 79c | 34.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 76c | 34.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 77c | 33.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 33.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 78c | 31.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 79c | 31.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099b…6b04backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 29.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 28.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 26.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 78c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…f35abacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…fc6cbacked No | 66c | 24.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 76c | 23.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked No | 76c | 22.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…2e6cbacked No | 66c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 69c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed No | 79c | 19.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75c6…52f7backed No | 66c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 68c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 16.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 70c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 74c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…10d5backed No | 66c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 76c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.