Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11402aeadcbf18b852e70cbfbd869a46013121028a781461fc52c3c51e4240d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,170$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 45c | 573.88$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.43 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 384.32$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 335.89$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 61c | 327.08$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.88 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 4c | 311.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 306.06$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.64 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 239.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 64c | 223.19$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.47 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 63c | 207.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 192.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 188.44$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 182.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 48c | 176.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 62c | 162.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 123.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 71c | 122.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 40c | 117.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 53c | 117.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 37c | 114.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 41c | 110.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 73c | 89.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked No | 62c | 88.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 85.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 84.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 56c | 83.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 79.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 79.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 58c | 78.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 39c | 78.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 80c | 72.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 33c | 68.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 18c | 66.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 24c | 61.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 60.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 56.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 63c | 53.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 38c | 49.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 53c | 46.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 60c | 43.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 38c | 41.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 61c | 39.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 39.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 71c | 37.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 33c | 34.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 64c | 32.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 42c | 31.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 31.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 41c | 29.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 71c | 28.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 62c | 26.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 73c | 26.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 69c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 23.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 64c | 17.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 17.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 66c | 16.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 64c | 16.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 72c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.