Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aeb2af18d5706f2c2c21bd6a12bf9f43ac6e2b6a61816b1f512b19ce0c82315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 55c | 927.89$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.53 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 536.24$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 36c | 448.15$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.26 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 447.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 6c | 432.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 24c | 340.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 323.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 299.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 52c | 262.43$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 262.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 235.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 15c | 222.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…6797backed Yes | 15c | 184.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 16c | 141.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 55c | 139.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 135.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 38c | 129.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 11c | 124.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 10c | 107.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 30c | 105.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 43c | 94.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 43c | 92.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 90.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 87.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 42c | 86.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…5ac3backed No | 62c | 78.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 77.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 54c | 77.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 38c | 72.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 43c | 71.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed Yes | 17c | 60.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 59.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 52c | 57.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 38c | 57.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 63c | 56.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 55.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…cda2backed Yes | 22c | 55.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 52.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 48c | 49.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 40c | 49.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 38c | 46.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 29c | 40.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed Yes | 55c | 34.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 29.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 38c | 28.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 57c | 25.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.