Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fd0c038c3ceccd457837b44636ed13611d8de128aa1b5531841355cfbfa3348
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,860$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 38c | 488.23$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 427.76$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 408.17$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 47c | 341.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 318.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 63c | 305.25$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 35c | 279$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 44c | 265.68$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.73 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 257.55$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 239.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 52c | 188.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 65c | 187.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 163.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 160.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 156.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 51c | 148.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 129.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 126.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 74c | 118.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 33c | 98.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 98.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 50c | 95.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 94.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 38c | 92.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 50c | 91.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 87.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 78.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 48c | 78.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 67c | 74.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 71.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 38c | 67.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 33c | 61.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 49c | 60.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 62c | 59.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 54c | 58.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 54c | 57.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked No | 58c | 56.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 53c | 54.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 37c | 53.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 29c | 50.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 35c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 67c | 49.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 72c | 48.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…2711backed Yes | 39c | 48.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 33c | 45.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 59c | 45.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 56c | 42.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 67c | 42.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 66c | 40.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…09c1backed Yes | 61c | 38.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 40c | 37.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 65c | 35.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 34.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 34.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 34.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 40c | 31.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 37c | 31.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 38c | 30.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 49c | 28.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 50c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 37c | 27.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 66c | 27.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 45c | 27.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 38c | 26.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 43c | 26.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 54c | 26.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 25.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 62c | 25.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 64c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 69c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 69c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 67c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 65c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 56c | 18.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 68c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 66c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 67c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.