NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1151669ac3a1ed33ddf732799bca7002fe901d14717403d09c8c53a64a68567b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,617 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 54c | 11,808$6,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,477.91 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 3c | 6,707$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 40c | 5,829$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.46 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 4,676$2,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.1 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 55c | 2,280$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.39 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 60c | 1,656$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.4 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 52c | 806.76$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.88 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 41c | 806$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.46 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 757.59$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.44 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 46c | 651.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.92 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 519.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 59c | 399.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 40c | 333$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 43c | 288.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.95 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 40c | 233$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 54c | 222.93$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 60c | 216.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 40c | 163.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Under | 42c | 145$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 138.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 60c | 135.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 48c | 135.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 110.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 40c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 39c | 74.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 59c | 68.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…f793backed Under | 48c | 50.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 41c | 45.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 52c | 39.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…01c7backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 57c | 21.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…6c9fbacked Over | 60c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. Maple LeafsHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.