NHL · resolved market
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a1771ab48564ca11bb1484abf6b1940cab70f5a75a1e95298a24db0ae5c15b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Hurricanes, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,646 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Hurricanes | 47c | 1,800$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 1,603$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.42 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.99 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 1,500$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Hurricanes | 45c | 1,113$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.59 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hurricanes | 28c | 828.65$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.44 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 75c | 570.88$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.66 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 478.43$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Hurricanes | 29c | 406$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Hurricanes | 29c | 386.55$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Hurricanes | 27c | 230.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Hurricanes | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Hurricanes | 29c | 205.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hurricanes | 28c | 205$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 183.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…400bbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Hurricanes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 171.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Hurricanes | 46c | 171.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Hurricanes | 44c | 159.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Hurricanes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfede…c580backed Hurricanes | 45c | 124.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 116.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Hurricanes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Hurricanes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Hurricanes | 45c | 96.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 95.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Hurricanes | 29c | 80.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 78.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 78.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 72.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Hurricanes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Hurricanes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…71cebacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hurricanes | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Hurricanes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Hurricanes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…8cd1backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 32.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Hurricanes | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hurricanes | 45c | 29.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 24.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Hurricanes | 44c | 24.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Hurricanes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)this page
- Hurricanes vs. Maple LeafsHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.