NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x803a458883903a29639b55a7108a33138dd7c27e6fdeca6eb59c5162001eecde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,636 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 12,826$6,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,794.76 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 9,009$4,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,775.17 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Over | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,570 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…63b1backed Over | 47c | 3,774$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…dcb1backed Under | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 3,352$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.64 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.22 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2a6fbacked Over | 42c | 2,754$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 2,481$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.12 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 51c | 2,480$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.8 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,924$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.52 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 53c | 1,807$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.08 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 51c | 1,651$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.1 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 1,075$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.2 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.84 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 52c | 826$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.52 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 52c | 694$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.14 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 45c | 636.71$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.19 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 495.83$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.79 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 439.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 382.81$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.02 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 159.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…c0c2backed Under | 53c | 113.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…fadfbacked Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 38c | 101.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 52c | 97.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 57c | 88.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 47c | 83.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 48c | 83.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 63c | 77.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Under | 53c | 66.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 55c | 64.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Over | 48c | 46.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 55c | 43.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 49c | 40.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 50c | 37.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Over | 49c | 33.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 51c | 30.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Under | 49c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. Maple LeafsHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.