Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11626f547e5fab6237373b561ee852f2cbffe080c969b7f73bb6d93eed21b1aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 1c | 1,292$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 79c | 938.85$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 793.92$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.7 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 661.23$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 439.77$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 373.08$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 360.61$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 306.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 243.77$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 45c | 195.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 193.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 161.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 51c | 152$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 146.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 131.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 125.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 122.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 108.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 99.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 96.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 38c | 77.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 72.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 64.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 60c | 63.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 55.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 38c | 52.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked Yes | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 51.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 46.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 40c | 45.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 44.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 41c | 44.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 44.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 43.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 41.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 62c | 39.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 39c | 36.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 37c | 33.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 57c | 31.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 31.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 49c | 31.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 66c | 30.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…0a35backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 54c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 62c | 27.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 26.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 25.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 24.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 62c | 23.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked Yes | 61c | 21.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 62c | 16.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.