Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8acc024caac5b9634f396ce8f44f269d9091ecdeed35e01c032ad5a8fdd5c952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,525$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,414$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.06 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 6c | 710$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 675.08$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 61c | 491$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.75 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 45c | 479.7$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.62 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 62c | 470.67$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.51 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 7c | 402.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 384.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 349.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 302.43$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 268.8$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 49c | 232.84$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 207.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 194.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 188.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 170.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 151.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 49c | 141.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 110.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 103.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 53c | 90.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 33c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504c…e5d6backed No | 62c | 89.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.2wins | -0.53per pick | 65cpaid | -84%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 38c | 81.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 74.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 74.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 70.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 58c | 64.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 79c | 64.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 57.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 28c | 52.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked Yes | 47c | 52.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 50.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 47.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 43.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…581bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 42c | 42.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 35c | 39.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…41b5backed Yes | 52c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 73c | 34.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 42c | 31.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 52c | 30.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 30.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 35c | 30.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 30.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 25.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 45c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 48c | 22.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 21.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 57c | 21.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.