MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11759e169cc4e9066eacf5d075a095a06637ec0cd9bd10343fee4063b9e2aa0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 9,187$6,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,803.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 4,740$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 4,587$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 697.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 687.79$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.75 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 162.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 113.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 106$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 104$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 98.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 93.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 90.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…c695backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 61.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 51.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 49.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.