TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,127 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d1d…afd2backed Toronto Blue Jays40c10,215$4,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,111.091,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles60c9,938$5,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,968.311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Toronto Blue Jays40c7,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80044851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles59c6,962$4,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,854.523,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Toronto Blue Jays40c5,470$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,18823538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Blue Jays40c5,409$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1881,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays38c3,563$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.0712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles60c3,300$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3071,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.992,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles60c1,259$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.576,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4105,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Blue Jays10c814.66$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.541,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles74c768.92$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.038,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays40c768.37$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.66,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Toronto Blue Jays40c744.98$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.9959549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays40c742.9$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013851.4%71 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays35c507.62$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.679,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays60c502.97$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.582,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1758,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Baltimore Orioles60c470.96$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.3856851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles46c462.29$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.724,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles60c384$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.62,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Toronto Blue Jays40c378.58$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.431,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Toronto Blue Jays40c282$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.875049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Baltimore Orioles60c256.67$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6769351.9%360 W · 333 L+26.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays60c239.9$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.992,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles78c224.54$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.758,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Baltimore Orioles68c220.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5987750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles79c180$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.65,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Toronto Blue Jays40c151$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.41,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Toronto Blue Jays44c131.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.81,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…97bbbacked Toronto Blue Jays40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5039149.1%192 W · 199 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles39c113.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.53,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles60c111.15$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.462,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays32c110.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.294,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Toronto Blue Jays40c108.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3752449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Baltimore Orioles61c97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8372648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Baltimore Orioles40c92.59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5511648.3%56 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c6…eeb6backed Baltimore Orioles47c89.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3915942.8%68 W · 91 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Toronto Blue Jays38c88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4450748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays41c87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6746854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays41c87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6772154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a0c…14cebacked Toronto Blue Jays40c83.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5514555.9%81 W · 64 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25c1…7e8ebacked Baltimore Orioles60c75.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3319654.1%106 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles69c75.6$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.763,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Baltimore Orioles45c65.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0313353.4%71 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Toronto Blue Jays40c61.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.781,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays39c50.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.753,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.52,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Toronto Blue Jays39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Toronto Blue Jays68c46.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6866056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc597…c695backed Toronto Blue Jays41c46.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.88933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Baltimore Orioles60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b9…2592backed Toronto Blue Jays41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2857…3e27backed Toronto Blue Jays40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ac…6347backed Baltimore Orioles76c34.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.451478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays39c34.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.386,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles60c33.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.41,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56bc…9103backed Baltimore Orioles69c32.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.171442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Baltimore Orioles35c31.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4339953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Baltimore Orioles39c30.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.771,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5965…d26dbacked Toronto Blue Jays40c28.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.416450.6%83 W · 81 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays40c28.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.284,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Baltimore Orioles40c27.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6170154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Toronto Blue Jays41c27.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3345246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Toronto Blue Jays40c27.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0146952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a96…b71dbacked Baltimore Orioles40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1510742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Baltimore Orioles61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.751,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Toronto Blue Jays67c20.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.531,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe046…9bc6backed Toronto Blue Jays68c18.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5311158.6%65 W · 46 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc56b…772abacked Baltimore Orioles60c16.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7210759.8%64 W · 43 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.