MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6977ac24e4c4222918a31692bfd68ce3a66a9e837d3d8447ba595de18a89a8c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5257…f324backed Under | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 2,969$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.74 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 35c | 2,666$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 70c | 1,731$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.3 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 61c | 858.64$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.77 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 39c | 819.85$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 70c | 651.19$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 589.96$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 387.36$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 313.66$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 38c | 304$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.48 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 38c | 302.37$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.47 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 70c | 218$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 62c | 200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 187.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 61c | 179$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 30c | 175$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 70c | 175$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 70c | 167.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 70c | 147.86$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 70c | 126.87$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 70c | 125.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 70c | 124.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 109.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 82.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…0c10backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 67c | 65.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 65c | 21.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 63c | 18.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.