MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfdb50cb6dd33b44d3b2dba3218297025ff7389ef41eb3cc130a6a7534c0e4ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 59c | 9,004$5,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,648.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 7,124$3,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.61 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 5,767$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,172.4 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 40c | 3,414$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.42 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 2,132$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.61 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 2,120$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.09 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 58c | 1,800$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 41c | 1,299$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.64 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 33c | 1,077$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.34 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 946.38$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.54 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 475.47$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.07 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 57c | 437.09$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.95 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 261.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 42c | 217.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 204.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 41c | 195$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Over | 58c | 190$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 43c | 162.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 34c | 125.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 41c | 121.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 22c | 103.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 43c | 99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…3bd3backed Under | 11c | 88.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 47c | 53.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 59c | 50.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 61c | 39.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 36.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…1ac3backed Over | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 59c | 30.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7df1backed Over | 58c | 19.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.